Thursday, May 31, 2012

Smidiríní

Markets are set to post their largest monthly declines since September of last year.  The major indices are down between 6-7% for the month.

ADP says US Added 133-000 Jobs In May {Bloomberg}.  This was short of the 150,000 Street estimates and will add increased focus on tomorrow's government jobs report.

Only four Dow Components are up in price for May.  They are Walmart {WMT}, Disney {DIS}, AT&T {T}, and Verizon {VZ}. 

10 Year Treasury Yield Drops to 1.62%  {Bespoke}  Their comment, "Since peaking near 16% in the early 1980s, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note has been in a steady downtrend -- a downtrend that has now lasted 30 years.  Today the yield dropped more than 7% -- one of the 12 biggest one-day declines in history -- to 1.62%. Buy at your own risk"  Here's their chart of bond prices since 1962. 


Finally here's an interesting thought from CNBC's Fast Money where the question was asked, "What if Facebook traded at Apple Computer's multiple?".  Here's a couple of comparisons.

"Currently Facebook's forward P/E is around 53, but as {its} shares.....sink to new lows on almost a daily basis, the market is starting to question that valuation.......Fast {Money} breaks it down by the numbers."

If Facebook traded at Apple’s forward P/E of 11.7 Then Facebook would be worth $6.30

If Facebook traded at the S&P 500’s forward P/E of 12.8, it would be worth $6.90.

If Facebook traded at Google’s forward P/E of 13.2, it would be worth  $7.15.


If Facebook traded at Zynga’s forward P/E of 19.5, it would be worth $10.55.

If Facebook traded at LinkedIn's forward P/E of 128.2, it would be worht  $128.20.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.  Long ETFs related to the Dow Jones Industrial Average in certain client accounts.  Long TBT in client and personal accounts.  No direct positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this article with the exception of VZ, T and Apple.   






Trends: Midwest Manufacturing

This article is excerpted from the Atlantic.com/.  {My highlights in green.}

We're not used to thinking of the old industrial Midwest as a beacon of good news. Just the opposite. It's Exhibit A in the story of America's economic decline -- a land of hollowed-out factory towns and shrinking cities.....Yet, it may be time to rethink that view. Because there are signs that the heart of the rust belt may be finally shaking off its rust.

For the past thirty years or so, there have been two great running narratives about American manufacturing, both of which have been disastrous for the Midwest's economy. The first has been about the disappearing factory worker -- how by shipping some jobs abroad and replacing others with machines, companies have figured out ways to produce more goods with millions of fewer employees on their assembly lines. The second narrative has been about migration -- the decision by companies to move production away from once-booming industrial centers of the north, to southern states with weaker unions and lower wages.  Both of those trends, it appears, may have drawn to an end.

The first sign of hope is the bounce-back the country has seen in manufacturing employment since the end of the recession......Recently, manufacturing has staged a small comeback. Between January 2010 and December 2011, we added 350,000 jobs in the sector. It's a modest increase, but at least it's a movement in the right direction.  It's certainly possible that manufacturing is experiencing its own version of a dead cat bounce -- that employment fell so low in the wake of the recession, it simply had to recover a bit, even though the sector is still effectively moribund. But there are reasons to believe that we're seeing bona fide signs of life. The auto industry has gotten healthy. Exports are increasing. And some large manufacturers....have started bringing jobs back to the U.S. from overseas -- a trend often referred to as "onshoring." These companies have discovered that with rising costs in China, it can be just as cost effective to make products here at home as overseas.

The biggest beneficiary of these trends has been the Midwest -- which is something of a shock. For years, many observers have believed that if America ever experienced a manufacturing renaissance, it would happen in Dixie. States like Alabama, South Carolina, and Tennessee made themselves attractive to foreign manufacturers as well as companies up north, by using right-to-work laws to weaken unions and keep wages at cut-throat-competitive levels. They also offered up incentives in the form of sweet tax deals. All of this was supposed to make them the center of the future manufacturing economy.

That hasn't been the case.....Contrary to popular belief, the great flight of manufacturers to the South effectively ended at the turn of the millennium. From 2000 to 2010, manufacturing employment fell in the Midwest and South at roughly same the pace. Since 2010, the Midwestern factory employment has recovered faster than the rest of the nation's, growing by 5 percent compared to 2.2 percent in the South.....
There's a relatively simple explanation for this recovery. When it comes to the price of operating a business, the Midwest is a lot more competitive than it used to be. As the Wall Street Journal recently reported, the overall cost of doing business in the region, including factors such as labor and energy prices, is now about 96 percent of the national average. In the South, it's about 95 percent.....
...How did rust belt get back into fighting shape? In part, it has chased the South down to the bottom. Though states like Michigan and Illinois haven't gone to war against their unions, some factory wages have dropped. The major labor unions have also switched gears from trying to bid up pay and benefits to job preservation, as was vividly demonstrated by the most recent round of negotiations between the major car companies and the United Auto Workers....... Meanwhile, Midwestern states have become more adept at luring factories with generous tax breaks.

The manufacturing revival has been far too modest to bring back the rust belt's glory years. But it appears that some of the region's worst economic bleeding has stopped. Its an opportunity for its cities and states to go into rebuilding mode. Hopefully, that'll mean more good news in the future.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

What Drives Stocks


From http://www.businessinsider.com/:

Dylan Grice {of Societe Generale},...investment strategist and author of the Popular Delusions note, just introduced his "Quality Income Index." His thesis is pretty straightforward: Invest in high quality companies with sustainable dividends. {Above is inclueded} one of the key charts from his report. It shows how dividends are the most important component of total equity returns.  "The following chart shows that since 1970, dividends and dividend growth have been pretty much the whole story," wrote Grice.


New Lows

The 10 year treasury just touched an all time low of 1.659%.  That is just incredible to me.  Also hurts as I am short bonds in certain client accounts via TBT!

*Long TBT in certain client and personal accounts.

Smidiríní

Pew Research: European Unity on the Rocks.

How Tim Cook is Changing Apple. {Fortune}

A US Fiscal Cliff {Yardeni}

Finally it's Mortgage Do-over time. {LA Times}

*Certain clients of Lumen Capital Management own Apple as part of non-discretionary purchases.  Apple is also a key component of many of the ETFs we own for clients.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Scenarios: An update.

Back at the end of the month we published a series of four scenarios on what we thought could happen to stocks through the rest of this year.  So far stock prices are trading somewhere between our scenarios one and three.  

In scenario one we said, "Markets make marginal new highs between now and early summer. The summer doldrums set in, a slight slowdown in economic growth occurs and issues in Europe preclude stocks going much higher than the 1420-1430 range on the S&P 500. After a brief period of chop, stocks decline 6-10%. A rally is capped until markets sort out among themselves who will be the winners in November. At that point markets resume their rally and end the year somewhere between 1450-1500. This scenario gives President Obama 50% odds of being re-elected."

Our 3rd scenario envisioned a scenario where "Slower than expected economic growth, persistently high unemployment statistics, fears of a 2013 recession and continued problems in the Euro zone contrive to put a lid on stock prices in May and June leading to a summer decline as the election season approaches. Markets rebound after the elections and finish 2012 between 1350 and 1425, not far from their April highs. This scenario places the President's odds of being re-elected at under 50%." 

There is another possibility however.  That's the possibility that stocks continue to mimic the trading patterns of the past two years.  If that is the case then the markets could look a lot like the chart pattern we're showing below.


Stay tuned.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.



 

Monday, May 28, 2012



Happy Memorial Day!

In our town of River Forest one of the highlights of our year is the Memorial Day parade which runs right down our street passing in front of Global HQ. We fly two American flags between now and the 4th of July.

The flag you see off to the side of Global HQ was carried by my brother-in-law who flew Harrier jets for the marines in Afghanistan. We honor his service as well as the services of all prior family members and all others who are serving or who have served in our armed forces.

Happy Memorial Day everybody!

Unvarnished family plug:  My brother in law wrote a book about his time in Afghanistan called A Nightmare's Prayer.   You can read about it and perhaps buy a copy if so inclined here. My brother in law, Michael Franzak won the 2012  William E. Colby Award for his book.  The Colby Award is named for the late Ambassador and former CIA Director William E. Colby.  It recognizes a first work of fiction or non-fiction that has made a significant contribution to the public’s understanding of intelligence operations, military history or international affairs.


 Way to go Mike!!!

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Net Market Positive

Reflecting some of our most recent moves and reflecting the current positioning and valuation of the markets we will move our intermediate rating back to NET MARKET POSITIVE.  We suggested on May 15 that we were close to making this change.  Also recall that we upped our shortest term ratings back on April 11. The S&P 500 is down around 2.5% since that change date on our shortest term readings.  You can also go  here  for a definition of what these terms mean.  Please remember that your ratings reflect what we are doing for our clients and are not meant to be any sort of market timing mechanism.   

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

an tSionna {05.24.12}


*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client accounts and personal accounts.

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Link

Having to edit this on the road from my IPad. Here is the Bespoke link to the previous article. Sorry it's not cleaned up.

 http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/5/21/10-year-yield-is-less-than-half-of-all-sp-500-stocks.html

*Also long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

Stock Yields

I'm still on the road but saw this interesting fact from the folks over at Bespoke Investment Group today: "With the 10-Year US Treasury now yielding 1.74%, it is now paying a coupon that is less than the dividend yield of more than half of the stocks in the S&P 500.  As of today's close, there are now 271 stocks in the S&P 500 that have a greater yield than the 10-Year US Treasury.  Of the remaining 229 stocks in the index, 126 have a dividend yield that is less than the 10-Year US Treasury, while 103 pay no dividend at all." Link:

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Good Luck & Godspeed!


Good luck to the graduating class of Providence College, 2012...




....and especially to one of our first employees below! We kid him an awful lot but we think Michael is a pretty good guy. We're really proud of him around here. There is one final thing that I have to say.  In almost every picture, no matter the event or time or place, in almost every picture I've ever looked at.....


 

Mike was always smiling.



God bless. May the saddest day of your future be no worse than the happiest day of your past!

Bíonn grá athar síoraí




May you have the hindsight to know where you've been. The foresight to know where you're going, and the insight to know when you've gone too far.




Friday, May 18, 2012

A Bit Of A Break


One of the first "employees" of Lumen Capital Management, LLC will be graduating from Providence College on Sunday.  Since somebody has to get him moved and that somebody is me, I'll be unable to post until sometime late next week.  I will break in if anything important happens.


Thursday, May 17, 2012

Facebook's IPO

Unless you live in a cave you know that Facebook is scheduled to come public tomorrow.  I almost never talk about individual stocks here.  I will not be participating in the initial public offering {IPO} of the stock for clients as I do not participate ever in IPOs and have no opinion on how the stock will do.  Forbes has a blog post on why they suggest you should stay away.  I think they make some valid points.  I'll throw in three more.

1.}  Bloomberg by way of the San Francisco Chronicle's Blog noted the other day  that at current levels Facebook would trade at 26 times sales.   That is an extremely high valuation.  The article notes that more than double Google's price to sales when the stock debuted back in 2004.  At that level everything needs to go perfectly for the stock to justify that kind of valuation.  

2.}  The Wall Street Journal online is reporting that insiders are cashing out at a much greater percentage than they have in most recent IPOs.  {Subscription may be required to access this article}.

3.}  The real red flag though in my book is that I'm being told by the Boston Boys and a few others that the lead manager, Morgan Stanley, is telling its retail brokers that they can get all the stock they want.  This is never a good sign.  Retail investors always occupy the bottom rung when it comes to IPOs.  Always have and always will.  No institution will pass on the free money that hot IPOs typically offer.  I don't care if it's just a couple of bucks, if it looks like a profit, then institutions and hedge funds will find room for it.  The fact that they're taking a pass may at the end of the day mean nothing, but to me this is a warning. 

Now look, I have no idea what's going to happen to Facebook when it starts trading.  For all I know it's the next Google and is set to double in the next year or maybe even by next week.  If it does, I'm sure in an indirect way my clients will participate as it will eventually make it's way into the ETF universe.  But there are enough fleas on this dog to at least say to people who might want to get involved to do so with open eyes.  I do know that if I was going to get involved, I'd have an exit strategy in place.  Also there's no way I would buy this in the aftermarket.  That is I'd definitely stay away if I couldn't get shares in the IPO.  I would absolutely not buy shares of this after it starts trading if I was an individual investor.

Two final thoughts:

What could really kill this market would be for Facebook to bomb out of the gate.  The individual investor already thinks he's getting screwed by Wall Street.  To have this open down 10-15% from its opening price I believe would just reinforce that perception, particularly with such heavy retail investor interest.

Also in a certain way I'd hate to be the retail broker with shares in this deal.  In one sense it can be a great way to build relationships with current clients and get a foot in the door with prospects if the deal does well.  It will also be a pretty good payday for these folks as well.  But here's the problem.  If it pops on its open, that is if it opens up 10-30%, there will be a huge temptation to take profits.  If a broker does this then he'd better hope that he's selling near the top.  If it is the next Google and it goes on to double in the next year or so then all the clients he sold stock for are going to remember that.  Facebook after all is not just some tech company the public has never heard of.  It's the classic Peter Lynch "buy what you know stock".  With over a billion users, investors know what Facebook is.  They will remember how their brokers handle this going forward.  This is also a problem if the broker doesn't sell the pop and then it heads lower, depriving their clients of any gains and it's really an issue if the stock tanks on the open.

Stay tuned.......

*No interest in the Facebook deal.  My clients own no shares of Google but it is a component of several ETFs that we own for both clients and in our personal accounts. 

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

an tSionna {05.16.12}


I don't know if the markets will start a new trend higher today, tomorrow or even next week.  Greece seems to trump everything right now.  I do know that stocks down nearly 5% in a couple of weeks is a pretty good hit and is a significant divergence from an economy that all the evidence shows is still expanding {albeit at a pace that likely doesn't add many people to the employment rolls}.  Here are a couple of things that I do know.

If S&P 500 stocks are going to earn somewhere between 102-105 a share {reminder: we are at 103.75}  then stocks are historically cheap on a 12-18 month basis.  Using last night's close the S&P 500 has a 12.85 PE and an earnings yield of 7.7%.

Bespoke Investment Group {1} was out with a report the other day that said the average trailing PE on the S&P 500 at the start of a bear market was 19.8 times trailing earnings.  Using S&P earnings last year of $97.00 says the market would have to be trading around 1920.  That's nearly 44% higher than where we are right now.   

The news out of Greece on the forming of a caretaker government  likely buys the market some time now.  It would not surprise me to see us work higher now to around mid-July top out and then use Greece as the excuse for a typical late summer sell off!  Not saying that will happen but it would fit the usual market pattern for summer.  

For clarity I will reiterate our current ratings.  Our ratings remain NET MARKET POSITIVE short term which we raised on April 11 and it is the same for our longest term measurements of market strength. We are NET MARKET NEUTRAL intermediate term. You can go here for a definition of what these terms mean.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

{1} BIG Tips, 05.14.12 Bespoke Investment Group.  {Subscription required to access this article.}

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

About This Correction

The S&P 500 has fallen about 6% since the end of the first quarter.  The US economy seems to be doing OK given all of our headwinds of structural unemployment and our own debt issues, not to mention this little thing called an election.  None of it matters as the markets are fixated with Greece.  Readers of this column will note that we flagged a possible issue of market softness back on March 6th.  We lowered our market ratings back then to NET MARKET SELL for the short term and NET MARKET NEUTRAL for the intermediate term.  We upped our short term ratings on April 11th but have not changed our intermediate outlook, although we may be close to doing so.   You can go here for a definition of what those terms mean. 

Readers of this blog will know that I place a lot of emphasis on cyclical patterns.  Given what's been going on recently with stocks I thought a refresher on my thinking on that subject might be timely.  Therefore I'm going to publish below a reprint of the Q&A article I wrote about a month ago on market seasonality.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

Q&A {Part III} Reprint

This is a partial reprint of Part III of our Q and A series.  This was originally posted to our blog on April 6, 2012. {Note:  Highlighted bullet points.}

You place a lot of emphasis on market seasonality. Why is that?

We have touched on this in past client letters here  here and here. Basically there are seasonal variations or patterns that come into play in most years. The study of these bullish and bearish phases means that I accept as a given that stocks at some point this year will experience a sell off between 8-20%. This is simply the normal course of how markets behave in most years. It is part of the seasonal variation of how in a normal investment year stocks will cycle between bullish and bearish phases as measured by money flows. While market declines can come at any time, statistically stocks are most prone to major sell offs in between the months of March and October.

As I've said in the past one of the reasons I think this pattern works is the philosophy behind how most of what we refer to as institutional money is invested. Institutional money is a generic term for large institutions such as pension plans and large asset managers such as mutual funds. It is managed on a relative basis usually tied to a specific benchmark and is also managed so as to not give up the assets. By relative basis I mean as an example in a market that loses ten percent, institutional accounts that go down only 8% are said to have outperformed their peer group. That influences how their portfolios are set up. Institutions generally start a year with similar economic and valuation expectations for stocks.

Institutions have a very strong incentive to be heavily invested in the early months of a new year. They are afraid to fall too far behind their benchmarks. Their thinking is similar to that of a baseball manager at the beginning of a long season. The manager knows you don't win a pennant in April but you can lose one during that time. As the year progresses and in particular if stocks have advanced in the first few months, equities begin to look less attractive on year end expectations. Stocks will either need unexpected positive news {i.e. better than expected earnings news or higher economic forecasts for example} or prices will begin to stall out. One of my concerns right now is that the markets have had such a strong move that much of the economic expectations are already priced into stocks. If companies don't excessively move the needle higher on earnings and sales going forward than investors, especially those with a shorter term horizon, may begin to lock in their profits.

Stocks will fall of their own weight unless there are marginal new bidders for their shares. Summer is typically a down period for Wall Street as the news flow often dries up {unless it’s bad news. It is amazing how many international crises begin in the late spring/summer period. Both World Wars, the Korean War, 9/11, the First Gulf War and the 2008 banking crisis are examples of this.}

Summer is also when analysts begin to fine tune their expectations for stock prices as clarity begins to enter the picture about year-end economic activity. Stocks will also begin to discount any lower revisions or negative economic news during this period of seasonal weakness. Once this discounting process is completed stocks will usually then begin to rally sometime in autumn. The cynical amongst us also know that the only print that matters for most money managers is the one shown when the market closes on December 31st. To put it simply Wall Street wants to get paid. So there is a strong incentive to boost share prices during the 4th quarter of the year.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Premarks {05.13.12}

Market is looking like it will be down 10 points on the open.  Should that occur stocks will have fallen about 6% from their highs.  It has been a painful 6% and many individual names have fallen much more than that.  Stocks are not quite oversold for a rally yet today but they are getting there.  The percentage of stocks above their 50 day moving averages fell to under 35% on Friday.  That's getting us down to a level where rallies {even if they move higher just for a bounce} is likely. 

an tSionna {05.13.12}


*Long ETFs related to the Nasdaq composite in client accounts.

Friday, May 11, 2012

Correction Mode-How Various Stock Markets Have Faired

From Bespoke Investment Group:

"If there is one thing we can all agree on, it is that the last several weeks have not been enjoyable for anyone who is long equities. The chart below summarizes when and by how much major international equity markets have declined from their 2012 peaks.......



...Although US equities are down close to 5% from their highs in April, compared to the rest of the world, things looks pretty good here. The only other country that has seen less of a decline than the US is China. In terms of timing, while most countries saw their year to date peaks in early to mid-March, US equities held out the longest and didn't peak until April 2nd."



*One way or another we are long most of these components in certain of our ETF strategies.



Smidiríní {An Introduction}



Today we'll introduce a new section to the blog that we're going to call smidiríní.  Smidiríní translates from gaelic as small pieces.  The word smithereens derives from this as does the term smidge or smidgin.  We're going to use this section when we want to link articles that we find of interest but are too long to post in a longer form.

Today's version is the JP Morgan edition!

From the Wall Street Journal:  JP Morgan's 2 Billion Blunder  Also see Zachary Karabell over at the Daily Beast JP Morgan's 2 Billion Loss Fueled by Efforts to Avoid Risk and Doug Kass at the Street.com Smartest Man in the Room Looks Dumb.









 


Thursday, May 10, 2012

an tSionna 05.10.12 {Part II}

Here are a few take-aways from the chart I posted earlier:

The rally we experienced from last fall to the end of March is over at least for now.  The S&P 500 traded through its upward trend line in early April, has been unable to recover and rallies have been sold.

The always festering debt crisis in Europe has been largely the catalyst for the latest sell off but another likely candidate is an earnings season that started off with a bang but has been tepid since then.  Typical of the most recent reports the earnings call from Cisco Systems {CSCO} last night where the company lowered its quarterly expectations for the next quarter, blaming slower growth in Europe and slower sales to governments.   This is reminiscent of last year when growth seemed to slow down in the spring, leading to fears of economic contraction.

There is a major level of support slightly underneath where the S&P now trades around the 1340 level.  That support/resistance line has been crossed many times in the past decade and can be traced back to 1999.  Probability suggests that it will act as support again at least the 1st time stocks attack the level.  

Stocks are oversold short term which is indicative of at least some sort of a bounce in the short term.  Our intermediate and longer term indicators are more neutral and suggestive of a market that will need to rest and repair some of the damage from the last month.  This is consistent with how stocks have also recently traded.  A trading range seems to have developed between 1340-1410 on the S&P 500.  Note that it is normal for stocks to at some point pause to digest a large move.  We're still about 25% higher from last October's lows.

While there is no evidence to suggest that the market is ready to take off from these levels to new highs anytime soon, stocks are still statistically cheap.  S&P 500 earnings are forecast to end the year between 100-105 per share.  We are using 103.75.  The price to earnings ratio based on our estimates is 13 and the earnings yield is 7.6%.  Based on our midpoint estimate  of fair value for the S&P for 2012 of 1475, stocks have moved back into a more attractive level of valuation.  This is especially true when one factors in an S&P dividend level of about 1.9%.  This is just what we are seeing from our perch today.  Of course there is a lot of the year left to go so this analysis is subject to change. 

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.  Cisco Systems is a major component of many ETFs that we own for clients and for personal accounts.

an tSionna 05.10.12 {Part I}


Chart of the S&P 500 that I wanted to put up here before the open.  I have some comments that I'll put up later today but I have a few business related items I have to take care of first.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

Tuesday, May 08, 2012

Out Today

A few things have come over the transom which makes it unlikely I'll get something up here today.  Tomorrow is looking crowded as well.  I will try to put something up in  the morning as I have a few charts I'd like to show you.  If that doesn't work then  I will definitely be back in the saddle on Thursday.

Monday, May 07, 2012

CNBC: Declining Viewers.

 Nydailynews.com ran an article last week about the  decline in CNBC viewers.  The article citing Nielson data seemed to pin the blame mostly on lower than expected ratings for Mark Haines' replacement, Andrew Ross Sorkin and a decline in viewership for such network stalwarts such as Maria Bartiromo.  Maybe this is the reason, but I think I know what's going on with America's original business network.  Here's some suggestions on how to fix it.

1.  Get rid of the morning radio-like "Zoo" programming.  If I want rock music and quasi human interest stories I'll go watch The Today Show.  As I'm writing this and turning on CNBC, Joe Kernan is driving around in a Ferrari!  How does that help me manage money for my clients?  Get back to a more basic business show.  I have  Pandora if I want music.

2.  Cover something besides the latest corporate scandal or Apple. 

3.  Break up the nexus between CNBC and Jim Cramer's Thestreet.com.  Nothing wrong with either but give me a different point of view some time.  While you're at it, let's get away from Jim Cramer all day, all the time.  I like Cramer and think he's done a valuable service to investors by making hard to grasp investment subjects easier for the individual to understand.  I also think he's entertaining. But some days he's on in 3-4 different segments.  That much exposure is wearing on most viewers.  Also quit working your mainstays to death.  If you had done that then perhaps Erin Burnett would still have been with the network.  Put Sorkin in a different role and find somebody with the gravitas of a Mark Haines. 

4.  Do more market and individual stock analysis.  The only one of your shows that does this on a consistent basis is Fast Money.  Lately they seem to be moving away from that as well.  This kind of work is what made the network shine in its the early years.

At one point CNBC had the business landscape to itself.  I have to believe that competitors such as Fox Business News  and Bloomberg TV are starting to make significant inroads into their core audience.  According to Mediaite.com in their coverage of this story, CNBC responded by saying, “The Nielsen measurement is focused on the distant periphery of CNBC’s core audience. They don’t measure the wealthiest American homes or people who watch CNBC out of home on trading floors or in executive offices, country clubs” or “five star hotels.”

Their claims may be true but a lot of those viewers have the channel on but the volume turned down.  I haven't been in a trading room or public place where anybody is actually listening to the programming in recent memory. No volume means viewers aren't paying attention to the commercials.  That, last I looked, is what pays the bills.

*Long Apple Computer in certain accounts and Apple is a major component in certain ETFS that we own for clients.

Friday, May 04, 2012

PreMarks: {05.04.12-Jobs}

Markets a little squeamish on a jobs report number that came in a little below expectations.  My thoughts. 

1.  Jobs are not the same as bottom line profit numbers.  Corporations in a slow growth environment are still reporting record earnings.

2.  Jobs will not grow at any exceptional rate until construction spending {and in particular new housing construction} picks up.

3.  Jobs report may have been a bit discounted based on the punk trading we've seen most of this week.

4.  Beginning to wonder if in regards to job growth/job creation if companies are taking a wait and see approach until they have a better idea of who will be in control of Washington next year.  In regards to this, now could be the beginning of a muddle along summer.  That is not an environment that helps President Obama's reelection chances.

5.  Finally not sure this is going to be a big data point in the end for stocks as markets have gone higher for a couple of years now with mediocre job creation.

Guesstimating the Markets {Part V-The Unexpected Event}


Today I'll share with you the last scenario that I think could happen during the rest of 2012. I'll offer this with the same caveats as in the earlier posts: 

1. These scenarios are based on what we know today. An unexpected event could throw this whole exercise down the drain.

2. Markets will become slaves to the election in November the closer we get to that event.

3. Do not go trade or invest based on what you see here! Remember the consigliere's maxim, "markets will do what they have to do to prove the most amount of people wrong"!

4. Treat these scenarios as generalities. I have no way of knowing whether the end points will play out the way I am envisioning here and offer these up as a start point for more specific analysis. As an example just because in the chart above we show stocks topping out in May or June does not mean even if we are right on direction we'll get it correct on time.

Scenario #4:
An unexpected catastrophic event occurs that catches investors off guard in terms of their allocations to stocks.  This could be a geopolitical event {war with Iran for example}, natural {earthquake or hurricane} or economic {a country like Spain or Italy for example defaults on its debt}.  Markets in essence crash before at some point finding equilibrium.  The fallout from this event would likely carry over into 2013.  Depending on the type of event the President's chances of getting re-elected could fall to under 40%.

This is in some ways the hardest scenario to handicap.  Nations sometimes behave irrationally and terrorists don't care about market timetables.  From a geopolitical standpoint the NATO Summit in our Chicago this spring and the Olympics later this year could prove to be irresistible targets.  Natural disasters could occur tomorrow or five years from now.  We assume that on an economic front that the European countries with the most debt will behave rationally but all politics is local and harsh economic environment sometimes make politically extreme policies look attractive.  As such I'll assign a probability factor of 5-15% to this scenario.  If I had to guess, I'd say that the most likely way for this scenario to occur would be a natural disaster.  Waking up some morning to find Los Angeles or San Francisco flattened by an earthquake could easily derail the economy and throw the markets into a tailspin.  But again those things may not happen this year or even in the next 10 years. 

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

Thursday, May 03, 2012

For Your Consideration {05.04.12}

Doug Kass over at  Thestreet.com.  Pertinent statistic:  "The Investment Company Institute reports that March outflows from stock funds totaled $9.62 billion compared to an inflow of $1.38 billion in February. That figure included $2.02 billion of funds committed to non-U.S. equity markets, however, bringing the outflow from domestic equity funds to $11.63 billion in March compared to an outflow of only $1.66 billion in February."

And the salient point:  It remains {Mr. Kass'} contention that it will take relatively large losses in bond funds to bring back the individual investor into equities. But this is likely coming -- it almost always occurs coincident with higher stock prices -- and when it does, one of the greatest reallocations out of bonds and into equities will commence.

2.)  Barry Ritholtz over at The Big Picture {BTW one of my "must" reads every morning} on managing money.  Where Sea Monsters Live:   "Anyone who toils in the markets professionally or manages money for other people (or even their own investments) does not get to enjoy such a lavish, self-indulgent luxury. Their job is not to opine on such matters, but rather, to manage cash in the environment that is — the world that exists presently, and is likely to exist in the near future. It is not their role to manage money based on the way things ought to be — rather than the way things are."





Wednesday, May 02, 2012

Guesstimating the Markets {Part IV}


Today is the 3rd scenario I'll offer up on what I think could happen during the rest of 2012. I'll offer this with the same caveats I used in the preceding posts:

1. These scenarios are based on what we know today. An unexpected event could throw this whole exercise down the drain.

2. Markets will become slaves to the election in November the closer we get to that event.

3. Do not go trade or invest based on what you see here! Remember the consigliere's maxim, "markets will do what they have to do to prove the most amount of people wrong"!

4. Treat these scenarios as generalities. I have no way of knowing whether the end points will play out the way I am envisioning here and offer these up as a start point for more specific analysis. As an example just because in the chart above we show stocks topping out in May or June does not mean even if we are right on direction we'll get it correct on time.

Scenario #3 {Please note this is a weekly chart.}

Slower than expected economic growth, persistently high unemployment statistics, fears of a 2013 recession and continued problems in the Euro zone contrive to put a lid on stock prices in May and June leading to a summer decline as the election season approaches.  Markets rebound after the elections and finish 2012 between 1350 and 1425, not far from their April highs.  This scenario places the President's odds of being re-elected at under 50%. 

I assess the probability of this scenario occurring as between 25-30%.  I believe this situation or some variant of it is probably the scenario that most market participants expect to see unfold the rest of 2012.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

Tuesday, May 01, 2012

Energy: An Update.


We discussed back in Mid-March the significant underperformance of energy up to that point.  From the time of that post until Mid-April, energy stocks became I think the worst performing sector in the markets, declining on average about 10% during that time period.  We noted this decline on April 13 and posted an updated chart on April 16th.  In that last post we noted we'd be doing some work on the group.  Well we did our homework and the net result is that in the past week or so we have been buyers of energy related ETFs per our different investment strategies and per client risk/return parameters.  The group has become statistically cheap, oversold and the money flow patterns are starting to look positive.

*Long various energy related ETFs in client and personal accounts.

{Note that this is a different chart than the IEZ that we have previously shown.  I updated this for a client today and decided to print it with this post.} 

Earnings Update


Yesterday I posted my 2nd scenario showing an environment where stocks do much better than consensus largely as a result of better than expected corporate earnings this year.  In support of that possibility check out what Chartoftheday.com posted last week.  Here's their commentary:

"With first-quarter earnings season well underway (over 65% of S&P 500 corporations have reported), today's chart provides some long-term perspective to the current earnings environment by focusing on 12-month, as reported S&P 500 earnings. Today's chart illustrates how earnings declined over 92% from its Q3 2007 peak to Q1 2009 low which brought inflation-adjusted earnings to near Great Depression lows. Since its Q1 2009 low, S&P 500 earnings have surged (up an inflation-adjusted 1120%) and currently come in at a level that is well above its dot-com bubble peak and fast approaching its credit bubble peak.....In the end, if corporate earnings were to continue to beat expectations (of those that reported so far this quarter, a relatively high 70% have beat expectations), then inflation-adjusted S&P 500 earnings could make new, all-time record highs this year -- a dramatic reversal from three short years ago."