Friday, January 26, 2018

US Economic Expansion


From Charlie Bilello's  twitter feed:  "US economic expansion hits 102 months, 3rd longest in history. At 2.3%, real GDP during this expansion remains the slowest."


Real GDP growth today came in at 2.6% for the 4th quarter and that's below the expected 3% reading by most economists. There's been a lot of speculation on why GDP growth has been so slow in this recovery and it's not worth the time to put those reasons on this blog. Let's just accept that it's been slower than the historical average. The chart above is proof of that. Here are a few thoughts as we look forward. First, those 4th quarter readings don't show any of the benefits that could come from the changes in the tax code. The extra money that's going to show up in individual's and corporation's pockets hasn't been spent yet. Also it's possible that the slow pace of this expansion has added to its longevity. Finally maybe we're going to see the highest expansionary readings in the coming months. If that's the case then these numbers could begin to edge up.

Back early next week.

Twitter link for the chart above: Charlie Biliello's Twitter Link {I must say that though I am new to following Charlie, I think he does excellent work.}

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Without Comment


Above, and today without comment, is a chart of the S&P 500 index since last August.  Please note in this chart the unrelenting move higher we've seen since the beginning of this year.  Some would call this a parabolic move to the upside.  Stocks are up a bit over 6% so far this month.  According to CNBC this morning we are off to the best start of the year since 1987.  A normal corrective move from these levels of 10% would only take us back to last November.  The financial press is as uniformly enthusiastic as they were universally negative back in March of 2009.  I am making no predictions by making that comment about the press.  I'm simply stating the obvious.

More on this at a later date.

We own ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts. Short S&P 500 in a personal account as part of a separate individual strategy. Positions can change at any time without notice on this blog or via any other form of electronic communication.

Chart is fromTrading View.com.


Monday, January 22, 2018

Investors Cheering


Link:  The Macro Tourist.

We own ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts. Short S&P 500 in a personal account as part of a separate individual strategy. Positions can change at any time without notice on this blog or via any other form of electronic communication.

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Reversal

There was an interesting reversal in markets yesterday.  All the major US indices posted new record highs before promptly selling off.  Those final numbers don't look so bad but when you consider where stocks traded around mid-day and where they closed out then the sell-off looks a bit more intense.  Hard to say what one day means and we've seen this happen before during this market run.   But the markets have been making parabolic type moves here in January and we're about as overbought short-term as you can get so maybe we want to pay a bit more attention to how things transpire over the next couple of days.

I have to be out the rest of the week on appointments and internal meetings so the next post here will be Monday or Tuesday.

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

A Few Brief Thoughts as We Turn the Page


We just closed the door on an impressive year economically. A quick synopsis finds that most major market indices posted returns around 20% U.S. GDP grew by about 3% after the first quarter, and unemployment stayed under 5%. We’ll go into more detail on this in our next letter which will accompany our client’s end of the year portfolio reviews.  These numbers though are now behind us and so let’s briefly touch on a few things to think about as we turn the corner into a new year. 

Tax reform is perhaps the single biggest element we’ll have to confront in the new year. The massive tax overhaul that was signed into law in December is effective for 2018, so it will have an immediate impact on the economy.  Lost in the political rhetoric is that many Americans will see money back in their paychecks this year as a result of lower tax brackets.  If this extra cash isn’t gobbled up by states and local governments, as seems to be the case in Illinois, then that extra money is likely to find its way back into the economy. 

Corporate earnings have been high, and should likely grow as businesses see their tax rates cut from 35% to 21%. This has the potential to add an extra thrust to the bull market. Stock valuations have been high, and a surge in corporate earnings might make values look more reasonable if the earnings increase from the expected tax savings.

Some say that tax reform will only boost corporations, however, so far we are seeing corporations use some of this new found savings into benefits for their employees in the form of wage increases or bonuses.  As an example, just look at what Walmart is doing.  Walmart is the largest U.S. private employer with over 1 million workers.  It announced a few days ago that it would be raising starting wages nearly 22%, from $9 to $11 dollars an hour and would hand out employee bonuses from $200 to $1,000.  They acknowledged that at least some of that raise was a result of the recently passed tax plan although a tight job market likely influenced their decision as well.  Either way, Walmart is deeply embedded in many smaller towns and cities that the modern economy has passed by.  In a lot of these places a raise of $2 an hour and the potential of a $1,000 dollar raise can have a significant impact in both spending and savings rates.

A negative effect of the new tax law is that it will likely increase the Federal deficit, potentially adding to what many feel is an already unsustainably high levels of national debt. The jury is out on this as some economists argue that the growth spurt from the additional money in consumers pockets, as well as future repatriation of corporate cash deposits held overseas, may offset the loss of current revenue from the cuts.  If this rosier scenario turns out to be incorrect then higher debt could be an impediment to economic growth and restrict long-term growth potential.  Tax reform also contains provisions that may weaken Obamacare, possibly increasing health care costs. While this won’t have a great impact on the overall economy, it could impact certain individuals significantly.

Overall, economic factors point towards continued growth in 2018. That also means that the Fed will likely continue raising rates as they have been doing recently under our tight job market and our low inflationary environment.  Some worry that increased rates could put a cap on stock prices as higher rates make savings instruments like bonds and CDs more attractive.  I think this doesn’t impact stocks until we see rates somewhere between 3-4%.  Most of my career 10 year bonds yielded close to 5% and rates were significantly higher when I started in the business in the 1980s.  If stocks could rise in that sort of an environment then rates at these levels or slightly higher shouldn’t be much of an impediment.

Though the markets have the potential to advance in 2018, we will probably see more volatility in the coming year. Last year’s saw some of the lowest market volatility ever recorded, so it would likely be hard to repeat that accomplishment for a second year in a row.  We’ll touch on this more in our next letter to you but it bears repeating that if you think you’re less willing to tolerate the inevitable ups and downs in the stock market then we should review your portfolio and reassess your tolerance for risk going forward.  Currently there don’t seem to be many economic indicators pointing towards a pullback or market correction this coming year. However, geopolitical tensions, outside events like a terrorist attack or natural disasters could still trigger a market correction, especially if they come out of nowhere.  However, it bears repeating that barring a major catastrophe or war these events would probably not trigger a recession. 

As always there will be some ups and downs, but 2018 seems to be shaping up to be a good year for the economy. It is important to make sure your portfolio is positioned to take advantage of continued economic growth and your portfolio is matched to your current goals and risk profile. If you have questions about your portfolio or if you don’t work with us and would like to understand how we invest for our clients than please call my office at 708.488.0115 or email us at lumencapital@hotmail.com for a second opinion and complimentary review.

About Chris

Christopher R. English is the President and founder of Lumen Capital Management, LLC-a Registered Investment Advisor regulated by the State of Illinois. A copy of our ADV Part II is available upon request. We manage portfolios for investors, developing customized portfolios that reflect a client’s unique risk/reward parameters. We also manage a private partnership currently closed to outside investors. Mr. English has over three decades of experience working with individuals, families, businesses, and foundations. Based in the greater Chicago area, he serves clients throughout Illinois, as well as Florida, Massachusetts, California, Indiana, and other states. To schedule a complimentary portfolio review, contact Chris today by calling 708.488.0115 or emailing him at lumencapital@hotmail.com.

Friday, January 12, 2018

ETF Returns {International Strategies}

Below are shown various international ETFs we cover in our universe.  Once again we are using the performance return capabilities from Stockcharts.com.  We have again included at the far left the S&P 500 ETF for comparison.  You can double-click on this chart to make it larger.  If you invested abroad last year then the place to be for the 2nd year in a row was in emerging markets.  Of course these as well as most markets abroad are finally showing signs that perhaps they are finally shaking off years of underperformance to the US financial markets.  Statistically these still appear to have relative better valuations and in some cases better fundamental characteristics than the United States right now.  As such probability indicates the potential for certain investments overseas to perform better than investments at home.   Remember though these markets in general come with higher volatility than what you might see in the US.  



*Performance data comes from the performance chart utility developed by Stockcharts.com.  While we assume their data is correct, we make no claims and cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of these results.

**Long various indices shown above in both client and personal accounts.  Please note these positions can change at any time without notice on this blog or on any other form of communication including written and electronic.




Thursday, January 11, 2018

ETF Returns {Market Sectors}

Below, and again using the performance return capabilities from Stockcharts.com, are various sector ETFs that are in our investment universe for sector investment strategies. At the right on each chart is the S&P 500 ETF for comparison.  You can double-click on each chart to make it larger for easier viewing.  Cyclical names performed better in general than non-cyclical.  The exception to that was the energy sector.  Of note perhaps is that energy is one of the best performing sectors so far in 2018.  Homebuilders and biotechnology led the non-cyclical sectors.  Surprisingly perhaps to some was that consumer discretionary stocks did much better than the headlines from the national retail implosion would suggest.  Utilities lagged being under many of the same constraints we discussed yesterday regarding dividend paying ETFs.  




The more cyclical sectors of the market were the areas that really shined last year.  With the exception of energy and the transportation sector all the rest of these sectors outperformed the S&P 500 in 2017.




*Performance data comes from the performance chart utility developed by Stockcharts.com.  While we assume their data is correct, we make no claims and cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of these results.

**Long various indices shown above in both client and personal accounts.  Please note these positions can change at any time without notice on this blog or on any other form of communication including written and electronic.

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

ETF Returns {Total Return Strategies}



Above, and again using the performance return capabilities from Stockcharts.com, are various ETFs we cover in our Total Return strategies.  Again you can double-click on the chart to make it larger.  The application shows that that an equal weighted portfolio of just these ETFs held for the entire year returned 14.00% in 2017.  This group under performed the broader market averages in 2017 largely for two reasons.  The first had to do with this group having to fight rising interest rates all last year.  Rising interest rates, in general,  makes dividend paying equity instruments less attractive as they have to compete with the higher interest coupons on risk free investments.  The second has to do with the significant under performance of REITS-Real Estate Investment Trusts.  REITS had not only rising interest rates in their faces but also the fallout from the decimation of the retail world as online shopping took off in a significant manner in the last two years. Many REITs are mall based and the implosion of retail has had a significant effect on shopping mall capacity.  These factors have a higher probability of continuing in 2018.

These returns were lower than other sectors and strategies last year, but a 14% return on investments where the dividend payout will likely continue to grow is nothing to turn up one's nose at.  This group also generally has higher defensive characteristics then more volatile sectors of the markets in a correction as well.   In any diversified portfolio there's going to be one sector or strategy that will bring up the rear and in 2017 it was the dividend payers turn to follow the pack.  This group has been one of the best performing prior to this last year.

*Performance data comes from the performance chart utility developed by Stockcharts.com.  While we assume their data is correct, we make no claims and cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of these results.

**Long various indices shown above in both client and personal accounts.  Please note these positions can change at any time without notice on this blog or on any other form of communication including written and electronic.

Tuesday, January 09, 2018

ETF Returns {Major Indices}



Above is a chart derived from the performance chart application over at Stockcharts.com.   It shows how some of the major market indices we follow or invest in performed in 2017.    You can double-click on the chart to make it larger.  The only market cap ETF missing on this chart is the Russell 2000 and according to Stockcharts.com's performance chart that index returned 14.59% in 2017.  An equal weighted investment held for the entire year comprised of all the stocks shown above plus that Russell Index would have averaged an 23.31% return.

*Performance data comes from the performance chart utility developed by Stockcharts.com.  While we assume their data is correct, we make no claims and cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of these results.

**Long various indices shown above in both client and personal accounts.  Please note these positions can change at any time without notice on this blog or on any other form of communication including written and electronic.

Thursday, January 04, 2018

I Can't Tell If This Guy Is Serious


I can't tell if this guy is serious or if this is a parody.  If he's for real in his discussion of bitcoin, then one would have to be open to the probability that bitcoin's in the speculative blow off stage of an investment mania.  

No opinion myself....watch the video and you be the judge.  This is the part I find ironic and now I'm quoting from the video:

"Let me explain how bitcoin works. People worry when there is no gold behind money. But you don't have to worry about that with bitcoin because not only is there no gold behind it, there's no anything else behind it either. So technically it's nothing.  But because the good-hearted, anonymous people behind bitcoin release only a limited amount of this nothing, its worth something. Scarcity is what makes anything valuable. So with bitcoin, scarcity is what makes nothing valuable, as well.

Another instrumental part of bitcoin is the blockchain.  It's a ledger that keeps track of bitcoin and keeps everyone accountable. Blockchain helps cut out the third party of banks that you have with normal money tansactions.  So its like a third party that cuts out the other third party, because we don't need a third party in our exchange of rare and precious digital currencies.  The genius behind bitcoin is it's an alternative currency to money, which means next to bitcoin, money doesn't really matter anymore.  So the  beautiful part about putting money into bitcoin is that the value of your money-which doesn't matter anymore-goes up, while the amount of bitcoin you have-which does matter-stays the same.   

Now with bitcoin I am all of the sudden the most qualified financial advisor I know. My strong history of no track record in wealth accumulation has given me the experience I need to recognize a once in a lifetime opportunity to get rich the easy way,  by investing in bitcoin...And its given me the ability to tell everyone I know about it.  There is a rule in the investment world you can bank on with bitcoin- what goes up never comes down. In the history of bitcoin its never crashed, so it never will.   Let me give you a tip, the best way to diversify your portfolio, is to put all your money into bitcoin, there's virtually no risk. 

Perhaps he'll have the last laugh and like I said it's hard to tell if this is for real or if it's a joke.  If he's serious though only time will tell.  Back next week.  


Wednesday, January 03, 2018

Cone of Probability

We are not in the business of making assumptions here at Lumen Capital Management, LLC.    Our system uses a probabilistic assessment that weighs market evidence based on three factors, fundamentals {both market and individual sector}, valuation and money flow analysis.

From this we have developed a system we refer to as "The Cone of Probability" or COP.  COP is our current assessment of the trading range within which we think stocks have the potential to trade during ta certain described time period.  It is a probabilistic assessment based on a many factors.  Some of these inputs are: Earnings estimates, and whether those estimates are rising or falling, dividend yield, earnings yield and the current yield on the US 10 year treasury.  This is not an exhaustive list of all of the variables that are used in creating the cone.  The Cone of Probability is used solely for analytical purposes.  It will fluctuate with market conditions and changes to the data inputs.  Index prices can and have traded outside of the range of the cone.  The data supplied when we discuss the cone is for informational use only.  There should be no expectation that this price range will be accurate and there are no guarantees that this information is correct.

Back Friday.

Tuesday, January 02, 2018

Solas! An Introduction

Hello and Welcome! At least once a year I will  republish the introduction to this blog and my general disclaimer:

As stated way back when, this is an experiment and Solas! so far seems to me to be the best opportunity to focus on what I want to write in a time efficient and hopefully interesting manner. However, please keep in mind that so far this is a hit or miss experiment. I don't yet know if this is going to work, how it's going to look or even if I am going to be satisfied with the end product. As a work in progress, especially at its inception, this may be a hit or miss endeavor. I don't know how and may never have time to do many of the things that make this look pretty or more professional. Nor am I going to take time away from my business to become an expert blogger. I do over time hope to make this better. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

What this is:

A learning experience. A way for me on occasion to make a point.

A way for me on occasion to discuss markets and investing.

A place for me on occasion to discuss the vagaries of life and perhaps editorialize.

A place to discuss the investment process.


What this is not:

A forum to tout any form of individual investments. (Particularly individual stocks or ETFs). We do not make recommendations on this blog! If we do discuss individual sectors or securities it will be solely in the context of a learning experience. You should understand that any individual sector or security that may be discussed here has the possibility of loss of principal.

A place for me to give individual investment advice. (Call me or others for this).

A theatre for me to tell you how wonderful I am or one for you to tell me what you think of me!

An environment for me to make stock valuation claims i.e. "XYZ is worth 50 dollars!" If & when we do discuss valuations, that will be an opinion and nothing there should be construed as a guarantee of return or a guarantee that a stock will ever trade to an actual price.

And anything else that I might think of going forward.

One other thing. Where I discuss any individual security I will disclose whether I or clients currently own that stock or ETF. That disclosure is only valid for the day of the post as investments can change at any time. Any person who reads this blog and is not a client of Lumen Capital Management, LLC should either do their own research, give us a call or talk to their own investment advisor before making any investment based on anything written within the confines of this blog.

Oh and a final disclaimer!!! I write principally for the clients and friends of my firm, Lumen Capital Management, LLC. It is a way for them to get a quick read on my thoughts about the markets and any other subject I might cover. I do so after understanding to the best of my ability their unique risk/reward criteria. As such any casual or outside reader of this blog should understand that I am not writing for them! Therefore I or my firm takes no responsibility for any actions overt or otherwise a casual reader of this blog might take based on our discussions here. Casual or outside readers should do their own homework, discuss our articles with their own investment advisors or better yet hire us.

In short if you're not a client and you read this you're on your own.